Swan events remain empirically under-detected.

Swan Science is a research laboratory addressing the structural gap in existing risk science, developing methodologies to detect intangible collapse events before they manifest as financial, reputational, or systemic loss.

Research mission

Swan Science is a research laboratory advancing the study of intangible collapse detection. Our work investigates why current frameworks fail to anticipate intangible-asset volatility for identifying intangible asset risks, despite them now comprising the majority of enterprise value.

Key findings

Recent research reveals a material omission in how institutions detect, model, and price intangible assets.

90%
Enterprise Value
Up to 90% of market capitalization now derives from intangible assets—yet these remain largely unmodeled in risk frameworks.
$79T
Global Intangible Value
The world’s largest corporations hold nearly $79.4 trillion in intangible assets, yet vast segments remain un-modeled for risk.
19%
Protection Gap
Only 19% of intangible assets are insured, compared to 60% of tangible assets, leaving systematic underprotection across portfolios.
Research

Our research program examines three interconnected areas:

Detection Gaps in Risk Science
Why do prevailing actuarial, underwriting, and compliance models fail to anticipate intangible collapse events? Our working papers analyze the structural limitations of existing frameworks.
Institutional Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
How do academic institutions, insurance firms, and regulatory bodies currently assess intangible risks? Our field research documents prevailing practices and maps systematic omissions.
Predictive Methodologies
What analytical approaches might enable earlier detection of intangible collapse events? Our ongoing research evaluates potential frameworks for measuring volatility in market value and organizational integrity.
Current Publications
  • Working Paper Intangible Assets and Detection Failures in Modern Risk Models
  • Research Brief The 90% Problem: Why Enterprise Value Remains Unmodeled
Research questions

Our work addresses several interconnected challenges in risk science:

Early Detection Methodology Current models measure lagging indicators of asset failure. Our research tests the feasibility of predictive detection for intangible collapse events, and what analytical frameworks would be required.
Professional Standards and Incentives Institutional decision-makers face career risk when intangible factors drive market volatility outside established frameworks. Our research studies how professional incentive structures influence institutional risk-assessment norms.
Academic and Professional Training Risk management curricula focus primarily on tangible asset models. Our research examines whether and how intangible volatility can be integrated into professional education and emerging certification standards.
Research community

Swan Science works with researchers and practitioners from:

Academic Institutions
Insurance Firms
Regulatory Bodies
Reinsurers

Our working groups convene scholars, actuaries, compliance officers, and risk managers to examine prevailing practices and evaluate methodological innovations.

Research Participation

Swan Science convenes quarterly colloquia to examine ongoing studies, share interim findings, and define emerging research priorities for the field of intangible-risk science.

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